On May 15th, the “Millions of Forums: 2019 Work Letters Think Tank Alliance Activities and Machine Think Tanks Conference” hosted by the Industrial Intelligence Research Institute and the Machinery Industry Information Research Institute were held in Beijing. Lu Xin, a researcher at the think tank of the mechanics, and the head of the research group, released the "Strategic Choice for the Development of China's Equipment Manufacturing Industry under the Background of Trade Protection and Industrial Transformation". At present, the global economy is expected to be lowered, trade frictions are increasing, and the global trade pattern will be brought more. With more uncertainty, in the face of these new changes, we must maintain a high degree of attention and accelerate the path of independent innovation.
Lu Xin, researcher and researcher of the mechanics think tank
I. Impact of trade friction on global trade pattern
1. Data decline, global imbalance
The International Monetary Fund cut its global economic growth rate to 3.3% this year, the lowest since the financial crisis; the World Trade Organization lowered its trade growth forecast this year to 2.6% from 3.7% in September last year; the Asian Development Bank will develop it in Asia. The country's growth forecast is lowered to 5.7%, which will be the slowest growth rate since 2001; the Dutch Economic Policy Analysis Bureau pointed out that with the further decline of the global economic growth momentum, the world trade volume compared with 3 months ago It has fallen by 1.8%; as the chairman of this year's G20 meeting, Japan hopes to deepen negotiations on global imbalances: "The risk balance is still tilting downwards."
2. WTO reform, populist rise, multilateral weakening
Major countries require that the focus of WTO reform shift from the previous institutional level to the current rule/principle level. Under the wave of populism, de-globalization has become an unavoidable market factor, and it will increase the difficulty of foreign investment. As WTO negotiations become increasingly difficult and some regional free trade zone plans fail to materialize, more and more countries are turning to arrangements outside the multilateral trading system (FTA), such as the multilateral trading system.
3. Trade competition has become the mainstream
The United States has continued to "retreat" and successively launched trade wars with major trading partners; it also led the negotiations of the new North American Free Trade Agreement, which has significantly accelerated the pace of bilateral negotiations... The era of global trade friction initiated by the United States has arrived.
Second, the impact of national industrial policies on equipment manufacturing
At present, the equipment manufacturing industry has become the focus of industrial planning in various countries. The industrial policies of various countries are also more pragmatic and diverse. More and more countries have included artificial intelligence in their national strategies, and they are also paying more attention to the challenges of artificial intelligence in terms of safety, ethics, laws and regulations, and social governance. As an important basic technology in the future, artificial intelligence has appeared in China's "Government Work Report" for three consecutive years. At the same time, the network security risks faced by the equipment manufacturing industry have increased. Basic and common technologies have become the focus of attention of all countries. A new generation of technologies, such as artificial intelligence, additive manufacturing, cloud computing, and quantum information technology, are mostly “enable technologies.” Combined with traditional manufacturing, they can be transformed into Advanced manufacturing. In addition, the global industrial layout and supply chain are being reshaped. Among them, trade protectionism and US-China trade friction, in addition to affecting trade and consumption, may also lead to an increase in the import prices of raw materials and components, and the supply chain will be passively adjusted in the short term. Part of the industrial chain has shifted. It is worth mentioning that the industrial policy system of China's equipment manufacturing industry needs to pay attention to the "three zero principle", namely zero tariff, zero barrier, and zero subsidy. In recent years, the FTA negotiations in the context of “three zeros” have led to the development of free trade agreements. This new situation presents a difficult issue for the policy makers of the manufacturing industry to balance and play.
Third, the impact of Sino-US trade friction on China's equipment manufacturing industry
Since 2018, Sino-US trade friction has escalated. The United States starts with the surface trade problem, on the one hand, solves the trade deficit problem in its "economic transcripts", and on the other hand, it uses various means to pressure China to make reforms in the economic and industrial systems. The essence is to contain Chinese enterprises. Occupy the commanding heights in the layout of high-tech fields.
In 2018, the foreign counter-subsidy survey of China's equipment manufacturing industry reached 14 times, a record high, 3.7 times year-on-year, accounting for 53.8% of the total foreign countervailing investigations against China in the same period. At present, the issue of intellectual property rights is still grim. Among them, counterfeit and customs seizures are prominent; 301 investigations have led to escalating trade frictions between China and the United States; and 337 investigation cases against key areas and advanced technologies in China have also increased significantly. In addition, with the escalating trade friction between China and the United States, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany and other countries are evaluating the supply chain security, the main target is China's high-tech enterprises. Then there is a stricter investment review that covers key areas of focus. Finally, export control has a significant impact on China's equipment manufacturing high-tech enterprises. The specific performance is (1) a large number of enterprises are included in the US export control list; (2) emerging technologies and basic technologies are the focus of future US regulation; (3) restricting scientific research cooperation, cutting off personnel flow channels; (4) adopting control + litigation means The combination of boxing, a typical case in this regard is the Fujian Jinhua case. In short, Chinese enterprises have become the focus of law enforcement in US export control and economic sanctions.
Fourth, strategy selection
First of all, we must keep a clear understanding of global trade frictions, that is, trade frictions have been regularized and the impact of trade wars has become deeper. Second, we are highly concerned about the situation of the traditional trade measures in the equipment manufacturing industry in China, and actively participate in the negotiation of new multilateral mechanisms. Third, strengthen independent innovation and move toward the high-end of the global value chain; Fourth, build an international industrial ecology to maximize investment risks; Fifth, build a compliance system for economic sanctions on foreign export controls; Build a supply chain safety assessment system in line with China's national conditions and safeguard China's national security and economic prosperity.